The most-traded SHFE tin contract exhibited a fluctuating rangebound trend, with spot market transactions dominated by immediate demand. [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract for June 23, 2025

​Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract exhibited a fluctuating rangebound trend. It opened at 262,320 yuan/mt, peaked at 264,470 yuan/mt during the session, bottomed out at 261,070 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 261,880 yuan/mt, marking an increase of 970 yuan/mt or 0.37% from the previous day. Trading volume reached 84,301 lots, while open interest decreased by 985 lots to 17,549 lots. Market sentiment remained cautious, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevailing at the beginning of the week.

​​The LME tin contract has recently shown a sideways movement pattern, closing overnight at $32,675/mt, down 0.05%.

LME tin is expected to maintain sideways movement within the range of $31,700-32,900/mt in the short term.

Ore Supply Tightness: The raw material inventory at local beneficiation plants is approaching critical levels. Additionally, the export route of tin ore to Thailand has been blocked, and transportation has been affected by heavy rains, limiting the increase in overseas ore sources. Domestically, smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have seen their production enthusiasm dampened by high ore prices, particularly among small and medium-sized plants. Social inventory has slightly increased, but overall supply remains tight.

​​Weak Demand: While demand for electronic solder has slightly increased MoM, the growth rate of PV welding strips has slowed down. Production schedules for white goods (such as air conditioners and refrigerators) have declined due to the drag from the real estate sector, and the recovery of traditional demand has been weaker than expected. Transactions in the spot market are primarily driven by immediate needs, with high prices suppressing restocking willingness. Downstream enterprises have adopted a "small-batch, multi-frequency" purchasing strategy.

​​The US Fed has maintained interest rates unchanged but has released hawkish signals. The US dollar index fluctuates at highs, suppressing risk assets. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven up crude oil prices, exacerbating the divergence among industrial products. Tin prices have experienced increased volatility due to risk-averse sentiment.